Dic 07 2013

Del Muro de Doña Haydée De Mendiola

Published by under Política

«Llegó el fin de semana y finalmente, tengo tiempo para sentarme a escribir y comentarles lo que “mi bolita de cristal” me está indicando en relación con las encuestas de diciembre. A algunos de ustedes les agradará mi opinión y a otros no tanto; eso es normal y esperable.

Lo que sí quiero dejar claro es que mi “bolita” es (y siempre ha sido) objetiva, y en esta ocasión, se está basando en una lectura seria de las últimas encuestas (Borge, Unimer y CID-Gallup). El siguiente es el panorama que vislumbro.

En primer lugar, el llamado “fenómeno Villalta” de sorprendente o de extraordinario no tiene mucho. Es cierto; don José María ha crecido bastante desde las encuestas de setiembre, pero todo tiende a indicar que su base de apoyo está constituida por una parte de antiguos seguidores del PAC; es decir, personas que en el 2010 votaron por don Ottón Solís. Así las cosas, pienso que en las próximas elecciones el señor Villalta captará entre un 18 y un 23 por ciento de los votos válidos (recordemos que en la elección pasada, don Ottón tuvo un 25%).

Veamos ahora el caso del PAC. Gran parte de sus simpatizantes ahora pasaron al Frente Amplio, una de las razones- aunque no la única- por las cuales don Luis Guillermo Solís no repunta en las encuestas. Analizando la tendencia entre las tres encuestas, y aún sabiendo que éstas últimas no son más que un retrato de un momento específico, pienso que don Luis Guillermo obtendrá entre un 5 y un 8 por ciento de los votos. Así las cosas, el señor Villalta y el señor Solís juntos conseguirían entre un 23 y un 31 por ciento de los votos; no más.

Según dichas encuestas, don Otto Guevara, quien en el 2010 obtuvo el 21% de los votos, en esta ocasión no pareciera que logrará más. De hecho, “si las elecciones fuesen hoy”, todo tiende a indicar que recibiría el apoyo de entre un 18 y un 22 por ciento de los electores.

Algo similar ocurre con el PUSC. Las encuestas nos dicen que el resultado que obtendría en el 2014 no será muy diferente del alcanzado en el 2010; es decir, alrededor de un 4 o 5 por ciento.

Aún en el supuesto de que cada uno de los candidatos ya mencionados obtuviese el MÁXIMO porcentaje de votos que, según resultados de las últimas encuestas, podrían lograr – 23% para el señor Villalta + 9% para el señor Solís + 22% para el señor Guevara y 5% para el señor Piza = 59% – quedaría un 41% por definir.

Ese 41% restante como mínimo es el que las encuestas – salvo la de Unimer, en la cual pareciera muchos partidarios del PLN están indecisos – le dan a don Johnny Araya. Basándome en esa información, casi me atrevería a decir que no habrá una segunda ronda y que don Johnny Araya ganará en la primera. No obstante lo anterior, todo dependerá de cuan hábiles sean los estrategas del PLN en sacar a votar a todos y cada uno de los liberacionistas, muchos de los cuales pareciera están “resfriados” con el partido debido al descontento con el actual gobierno.

Hasta aquí lo que se vislumbra por ahora. Veremos qué nos dicen las encuestas en enero…»

 

Haydée De Mendiola.

Bola-de-Cristal-137761_1440x900

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